The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Potential Use of an Ensemble of Analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

One of the crucial aspects of the design of an ensemble prediction system is the definition of the ensemble of initial states. This work investigates the use of singular vectors, an ensemble of analyses, and a combination of the two types of perturbations in the ECMWF operational ensemble prediction system. First, the similarity between perturbations generated using initialtime singular vectors...

The Prediction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slight...

Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble

Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) temperature and wind...

Improving 10-year surge level estimates using data of the ECMWF seasonal prediction system

[1] The vulnerability of society on extreme weather has resulted in extensive research on the statistics of extremes. Although the theoretical framework of extreme value statistics is well developed, meteorological applications are often limited by the relative shortness of the available datasets. In order to overcome this problem, we use archived data from all past seasonal forecast ensemble r...

Part V : the Ensemble Prediction System ( Cy 23 R 4 )